Directional change‐point detection for process control with multivariate categorical data

Most modern processes involve multiple quality characteristics that are all measured on attribute levels, and their overall quality is determined by these characteristics simultaneously. The characteristic factors usually correlate with each other, making multivariate categorical control techniques a must. We study Phase I analysis of multivariate categorical processes (MCPs) to identify the presence of change‐points in the reference dataset. A directional change‐point detection method based on log‐linear models is proposed. The method exploits directional shift information and integrates MCPs into the unified framework of multivariate binomial and multivariate multinomial distributions. A diagnostic scheme for identifying the change‐point location and the shift direction is also suggested. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the detection effectiveness and the diagnostic accuracy.© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

灰色模糊物元分析的要地防空威胁评估

结合要地防空作战的特点,分析了影响目标威胁评估的因素.针对指标信息的不确定性,将模糊物元分析与灰色系统理论相结合,并运用AHP法和信息熵法进行组合赋权,建立了基于组合赋权的灰色模糊物元分析的要地防空威胁评估模型.在对来袭目标进行威胁评估时,将目标的各个特征作为物元的事物,以其各项评价指标及模糊灰量值构造复合模糊灰元.通过计算与标准模糊灰元之间的关联度,实现对空袭目标的威胁评估与排序.实例分析表明该方法可靠有效.     

家园合作中父母参与程度的现状调查——基于新疆兵团S市幼儿园的问卷调查

利用“幼儿园家庭教养方式调查研究”基础数据,本研究从家长参与家园合作活动的频率、内容和方式三个维度考察家园合作中父母的参与程度问题,研究表明新疆兵团s市家长参与频率非常低,参与家园合作活动的内容单一,呈现出不平等的单向交流方式。同时,研究认为幼儿园性质是影响家园合作中父母参与程度的重要因素,而家长族别、文化程度和家庭户籍状况与家长参与程度无显著相关。最后,研究分析了家园合作工作中幼儿园与家长之间的关系,提出公办幼儿园和民办幼儿园促进家告参与的教师理念与策略,使家长参与更具实效性。     

属性权重信息未知的地空导弹阵地优选模型

地空导弹阵地的选择是防空兵作战指挥决策的重要内容之一,阵地的优选直接关系到防空作战任务的完成。构建了评价阵地优劣的属性体系,建立了一种属性权重信息完全未知而属性值为区间数的阵地方案优选排序计算方法,最后给出了一个应用实例。实例证明,该技术合理有效,评估结果准确,能有效减小误差。     

基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备可靠性分析

针对复杂系统,尤其是国外进口武器装备可靠性判断的局限性,研究了一种基于贝叶斯网络的可靠性评估方法。结合系统连接逻辑与贝叶斯网络的映射关系建立了可靠性评估模型,并用该方法对机载吊舱和航空动力系统的可靠性进行了分析。结果表明,该方法不仅能够快速计算系统的可靠度,确定出某一组件(部件)对系统可靠性的影响程度,而且可以为其他进口装备的分析提供参考。     

基于网络组织有序度的指挥体系优化算法

针对信息化条件下指挥体系结构的特点,运用复杂网络理论,提出了指挥体系的优化算法,将组织有序度最大化作为目标函数,以边的关键度作为调节变量,构建了优化模型和算法,并对指挥网络进行了实例分析,对比优化前后指挥体系在平均路径、聚类系数、度分布以及网络的抗毁性等指标上变化,最后得到最优化的指挥网络。该算法对指挥流程的优化具有一定的参考价值和指导意义。     

Solving generalized transportation problems via pure transportation problems

This paper investigates certain issues of coefficient sensitivity in generalized network problems when such problems have small gains or losses. In these instances, it might be computationally advantageous to temporarily ignore these gains or losses and solve the resultant “pure” network problem. Subsequently, the optimal solution to the pure problem could be used to derive the optimal solution to the original generalized network problem. In this paper we focus on generalized transportation problems and consider the following question: Given an optimal solution to the pure transportation problem, under what conditions will the optimal solution to the original generalized transportation problem have the same basic variables? We study special cases of the generalized transportation problem in terms of convexity with respect to a basis. For the special case when all gains or losses are identical, we show that convexity holds. We use this result to determine conditions on the magnitude of the gains or losses such that the optimal solutions to both the generalized transportation problem and the associated pure transportation problem have the same basic variables. For more general cases, we establish sufficient conditions for convexity and feasibility. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 666–685, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10034     

舰船舵减横摇广义预测约束控制

依据舵减摇状态空间模型,推导舵减横摇广义预测控制律,在舵角舵速约束的条件下,采用二次型规划计算控制量进行减横摇控制.对某一船舶在典型航行工况下进行了系统仿真,仿真结果表明,该方法不但可取得35%～45%的减摇效果,而且对横摇角速度与横摇角加速度也有40%左右的减小效果.     

诱偏条件下反辐射导弹毁伤能力研究

基于有源诱偏原理,推导出反辐射导弹在有源诱偏条件下的弹落点计算公式;并由已知的导弹毁伤模型,利用计算机仿真获得对目标雷达或其有源诱饵的毁伤效能。通过仿真结果分析不同的攻击角和末速度对导弹毁伤效能的影响,由此获得反辐射导弹在干扰条件下的最佳攻击角和末速度范围,对于在诱偏条件下研究反辐射导弹毁伤能力的有效性和实用性提供一定的理论和实用参考。     

面向信息化战争的广义兰切斯特作战模型

由于经典兰切斯特方程不能描述信息对于信息化战争的影响,因此在分析兰切斯特线性律和平方律的基础上,通过引入战场感知系数和信息优势系数,并利用信息优势系数对线性律和平方律中毁伤系数进行修正,提出了能够描述信息对战争影响的广义兰切斯特作战模型,仿真实验结果说明其能够有效地描述信息优势对于改变战争进程所发挥的重要作用。该模型为研究信息化战争的交战过程提供理论参考。